Despite that growth, the total freshman head count of all ages across all segments of higher education was down 5 percent, the first decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020, when it plunged nearly 10 percent, according to Clearinghouse data. Colleges and universities reported an almost 6 percent drop in 18-year-old freshmen signing up for classes this fall.

The preliminary data is the first significant look at enrollment trends following a year in which higher education suffered the defeat of affirmative action and a disastrous rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid. Many industry experts feared those developments would have a chilling effect on enrollment, and the significant drop in freshmen might prove them right. But analysts said it’s difficult to assign a definitive reason for the decline.

“It’s very hard to pinpoint any single cause of the changes, particularly in freshmen this fall,” Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director, said on a call with reporters Tuesday. “There have been so many different headwinds,” including “demographic declines … continuing concerns about the cost of college and labor market shifts.”

Still, some trends in the data may reflect the challenges students have faced in securing financial aid. Community colleges that serve a high percentage of students eligible for the Pell Grant ・aid for undergraduates with exceptional financial need ・recorded a 1.2 percent increase in freshman enrollment, while four-year public colleges with a similar percentage of Pell Grant students reported a decline of more than 10 percent in freshman enrollment. That could mean some students who were bound for four-year institutions chose lower-cost community colleges, though Shapiro said it is difficult to know for certain.

Overall, four-year public and private nonprofit institutions reported the largest declines in freshmen, down 8.5 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.

White students posted the largest drop in freshman enrollment, down 11.4 percent, while colleges and universities reported a more than 6 percent decline among Black and multiracial students. The decline in freshmen was felt across the earning spectrum, with students from middle-income neighborhoods seeing the largest drops at four-year public and private nonprofit institutions, according to the report.

New data released Wednesday by the Education Department refutes predictions that the delays and glitches in the FAFSA ・the gateway to billions of dollars in grants and loans ・would lead to a nosedive in enrollment.

Instead of being deprived of funding for college, the data shows that 3 percent more students are poised to receive federal aid this year compared with this time last year. Ten percent more are on track to receive Pell Grants, including 3 percent more high school seniors, according to the department. The federal agency expects more students to enroll in college with federal financial aid this academic year than the last one.

“We are thankful for all the college counselors, financial aid administrators, advocates, and other partners who helped students through a difficult year and recognize that there is still work to do to reach every student who needs financial aid,” Education Department Undersecretary James Kvaal wrote in a blog post discussing the new findings Tuesday.

Compared with this time last year, the department has received 2 percent fewer FAFSA submissions, with a large gap for high school seniors and other first-time filers. The feimderal agency said the decline in freshmen tracked by the Clearinghouse could be attributed to a continued downward trend in undergraduate enrollment that was evident before the pandemic, the strong labor market or demographic factors like fewer men heading to college.

Based on prior years, the department said the outlook for freshman enrollment could be better once the Clearinghouse releases its final numbers this winter. Preliminary numbers released by the research center last October did show a decline in freshmen while final numbers registered a nominal increase.

About 52 percent of colleges and universities, representing nearly 9 million students, have reported their enrollment to the Clearinghouse, which expects to release final numbers from more schools in January.

The Clearinghouse report is a closely watched indicator of sector-wide trends. Among some of the other key findings in the preliminary data is strong growth in undergraduate and graduate enrollment for Latino, Black, Asian and multiracial students, and a continued decline in undergraduate enrollment of White students. Researchers also noted the number of students pursuing shorter-term credentials continues to grow, with enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs up by 7.3 percent.